Market Dominance

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Prediction Market Dominance Index

A composite score measuring market action on Kalshi versus Polymarket. The index combines 24h volume share, liquidity share, and liquidity turnover.

K+50K+40K+30K+20K+10EvenP+10P+20P+30P+40P+50
Kalshi+7
Balanced
+15.8 Kalshi last 24 hours
Index Components● Kalshi   ● Polymarket
24h Volume(55%)
59%
41%
Liquidity(25%)
61%
39%
Turnover(20%)
48%
52%
How is this calculated?

Today's Snapshot

Head-to-head comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket across key metrics.

Activity

Kalshi
Polymarket
24h Volume
Trading activity
$128.82M✓
$89.20M
Liquidity Turnover
Volume ÷ Liquidity
0.30x
0.32x✓
Volume per Event
Avg. activity per event
$2.5K
$23.6K✓

Depth

Kalshi
Polymarket
Total Liquidity
Available depth
$434.95M✓
$282.75M
Liquidity per Event
Depth per event
$8.5K
$74.9K✓
All-Time Volume
Historical total
$783.91M
$2.85B✓

Breadth

Kalshi
Polymarket
Open Markets
Active contracts
230.0K✓
17.0K
Open Events
Distinct events
51.5K✓
3.8K
Markets per Event
Granularity
4
4✓

Maturity

Kalshi
Polymarket
Avg Market Age
Mean days open
8.8 days
47.1 days✓

Note: Breadth metrics (Open Markets, Open Events) are shown for context but are not included in the Dominance Index calculation.

Trends

Historical dominance metrics and venue comparison over time.

Composite market share score

Since Dec 12:+15.8 pts toward Kalshi|Range: K+8 to P+19
K+30 to K+50: Kalshi Heavy
K+10 to K+30: Kalshi Lean
±10: Balanced
P+10 to P+30: Polymarket Lean
P+30 to P+50: Polymarket Heavy

Methodology

How we calculate the Dominance Index

The Dominance Index measures where traders are most active across prediction markets. Each venue's share (0-100%) is calculated for three metrics, then combined using the weights below.

The Formula
Index=55%×Volume Share+25%×Liquidity Share+20%×Turnover Share
55%Volume Share

Each venue's 24-hour trading volume divided by total volume across both venues. Weighted highest as recent activity is the strongest signal.

25%Liquidity Share

Each venue's order book depth divided by total liquidity across both venues. More depth means larger trades execute with less slippage.

20%Turnover Share

Each venue's turnover ratio (Volume ÷ Liquidity) divided by total turnover. Measures how actively capital is being deployed.

0
Kalshi
50
Even
100
Polymarket

Example Calculation

Raw Data
Kalshi 24h Volume$2.4M
Kalshi Order Book Depth$1.8M
Polymarket 24h Volume$8.1M
Polymarket Order Book Depth$4.2M
Share Calculations
Kalshi Shares
Volume2.4 / 10.5 = 23%
Liquidity1.8 / 6.0 = 30%
Turnover1.33 / 3.26 = 41%
Polymarket Shares
Volume8.1 / 10.5 = 77%
Liquidity4.2 / 6.0 = 70%
Turnover1.93 / 3.26 = 59%
Turnover = Volume ÷ Liquidity
Weighted Index
Kalshi Index
0.55×23 + 0.25×30 + 0.20×41 = 28.4
Polymarket Index
0.55×77 + 0.25×70 + 0.20×59 = 71.6
Center Around 50 (Even)
28.4 − 50 = −21.6
−22 on the dial (Kalshi side)
71.6 − 50 = +21.6
+22 on the dial (Polymarket side)
Both calculations yield the same magnitude — the index is symmetric around 50.

Market count is excluded—Kalshi has 10x+ more markets, but quantity ≠ activity.