Ethereum Peak Watch

In general, prediction markets for crypto assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin often different from traditional macro and financial event markets because participants also trade on the on-chain factors such as underlying asset supply, staking metrics and token burns. In contrast to bitcoin prediction markets, ethereum markets may also reflect teconology-play aspects such as DeFi, staking, and Layer-2 adoption while Bitcoin’s primary narrative is as a “store of value”. Additionally, liquidity and participation in these markets is primarily driven by crypto-native traders operating on blockchain-based venues like Polymarket, which creates different market dynamics compared to traditional, centralized prediction platforms. For a deeper look at how these dynamics effect other crypto price prediction events, take a look at our Bitcoin Peak Watch dashboard which provides insights into macro sentiment via real time prediction probabilities.

A host of factors impact sentiment and price expectations for Ethereum prediction markets. In addition to macro financial signals which affect traditional markets, Ethereum has a unique set of on-chain factors that can sway expectation. For example, the EIP-1559 upgrade introduced a burn mechanism for ETH base fees, which acts to reduce the circulating supply and in turn creates deflationary pressures. Moreover, mechanism like on-chain staking serve to lock up supply, reducing the liquidity and increasing yield for stakers. Staking and burn mechanisms have slowed ETH’s supply growth towards an ~0.35% annualized rate. More on-chain factors that impact price action and sentiment include total value locked, gas fees, and network usage growth. Aside from on-chain factors, Ethereum price expectation is also heavily influenced by macro factors like liquidity, interest rates, and monetary policy decisions by centralized governing bodies like the Federal Reserve. For more insight into upcoming interest rate fluctuations, our Fed Rate Monitor dashboard can provide actionable insights.

Our Ethereum Peak Watch dashboard aggregates real-time odds from multiple prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket for Ethereum price milestones throughout 2025. In addition to an aggregate view of probabilities, we compute deltas across prediction markets, revealing tradable inefficiencies for pricing Ethereum at the end of 2025. These opportunities can be leverage to perform cross market arbitrage or to pick the most suitable venue to place your bets to the highest potential return. Moreover, we aggregate other key metrics such as the live price of Ethereum, daily trading volume, 24 hour deltas, and current funding rates.

The implied probability of the Ethereum price at the end of 2025 markets can serve as a baseline market forecast. Given the large amount of volume on these prediction market events, they capture not only individual traders sentiments’, but also incorporate the other signals we have discussed above, including both on-chain and macro financial signals. Traders can monitor the spread between ETH and BTC event odds to gain insight into whether Ethereum is leading or lagging the broader crypto sentiment, and to track divergences between expectations for the two tokens. Moreover, because these prediction markets are continuously prices, they often adjust faster than traditional forecasts and can act as a live sentiment gauge that moves ahead of on-chain metrics of spot-price movements.