Bitcoin Peak Watch

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are platforms where traders can buy and sell contracts tied to future outcomes; the contract price (e.g., $0.70 for a “YES” outcome) in turn is an implied probability that the event will happen, combining both sentiment and actual money-at-risk. Unlike a traditional forecast or pool, prediction markets update continuously and the contract prices are constantly change to incorporate all new information that trader deem to be material. In the context of Bitcoin’s future price, investors incorporate many signals such as on-chain data, derivates / leverage metrics, and macro indicators such a liquidity and policy when crafting an investment thesis. As a result of the massive trading volume on prediction markets, all of these investment signals are reflected in the real-time probabilities for bitcoin’s future price shown above, making them an incredibly valuable forecasting tool.

Macroeconomic factors play an increasingly large role in the crypto markets. For example, inflation, global risk-sentiment, and changes in interest rates can all have impact on demand for Bitcoin. When inflation surges or fiat currencies weaken, some investors view Bitcoin as a hedge or an alternative store of value akin to gold. In regimes that are more risk-on, speculative assets like Bitcoin may rally, while in more risk-off or crisis regimes, flows may more to more traditional assets and cause crypto to suffer. Moreover, lowering of interest rates serves to reduce the discount rate on all assets and thus increases risk-asset appetite, while interest rate hikes may dampen speculative demand. Because decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and monetary-policy shifts (via the Federal Reserve System) often set the broader rate and liquidity environment, our Fed Rate Monitor provides excellent insights into an important macroeconomic factor on Bitcoin price.

Our Bitcoin Peak Watch dashboard present real time odds from multiple prediction market events, including Kalshi and Polymarket, regarding price predictions for bitcoin in 2025. In one dashboard, we provide an aggregate view of the leading consensus for the bitcoin price at the end of 2025, highlight the difference between implied probabilities on each venue, and display realtime market metrics for Bitcoin including spot price, 24 hour change, market cap, trading volume, and perp funding rate. Moreover, we compute real time arbitrage opportunities across prediction markets, taking into account the fee structures for each platform and revealing opportunities to profit while trading implied probabilities on how high bitcoin will reach in 2025.

The implied probability (e.g., $0.70 for a “YES” outcome) for a given contract is a representation of the market’s collective expectation that the outcome will occur. Investors can treat that collective expectation as a market forecast baseline. If a trader’s own view is more bullish than the market’s baseline, then they might consider a position (buying YES) anticipating the odds will correct upwards. Conversely, if an individual is more bearish than the market’s forecast baseline, they may consider a position in the inverse direction by buying NO. Additionally, prediction market odds can function as leading indicators: shifts in the odds may actually precede price moves on the underlying asset or server as a signal for changing sentiment. More concretely, odds rising for a higher Bitcoin price at the end of 2025 could signal rising institutional flows or risk-on tilt.