Track live prediction market odds for the 2028 US Presidential Election. View aggregated probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket for the presidential race, Democratic primary, and Republican primary.
Aggregated odds from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets
Who will win each party's primary?
| Candidate | Avg | Kalshi | Poly |
|---|---|---|---|
Gavin Newsom | 35% | 34% | 35% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11% | 10% | 11% |
Josh Shapiro | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Pete Buttigieg | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Kamala Harris | 5% | 6% | 4% |
Jon Ossoff | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| Candidate | Avg | Kalshi | Poly |
|---|---|---|---|
J.D. Vance | 51% | 49% | 52% |
Marco Rubio | 18% | 19% | 16% |
Donald J. Trump | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Ron DeSantis | 4% | 4% | 3% |
Marjorie Taylor Greene | 3% | 4% | 2% |
Tucker Carlson | 3% | 3% | 2% |
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Key insights and explanations for market participants
This dashboard displays live prediction market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket for the 2028 US Presidential Election. You can view win probabilities for who will become the next President, as well as odds for the Democratic and Republican primary nominations. The dashboard updates in real-time as trades occur, giving you the most current market sentiment for the biggest political event in the world.
In prediction markets, each candidate's chances are represented by YES/NO contracts. The price of a YES contract directly reflects the market-implied probability of that outcome. For example, if J.D. Vance is trading at 0.25, that indicates a 25% chance of becoming President according to market participants. Unlike polls or pundit predictions, these prices are backed by real money from traders who have skin in the game, making them a uniquely accountable form of forecasting.
The 2028 US Presidential Election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The primary season typically begins in early 2028 with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, followed by Super Tuesday and the remaining state primaries through June. The Democratic and Republican National Conventions occur in the summer, with the general election campaign running through November. Oddpool's prediction market tracker will follow odds throughout the entire cycle.
Prediction markets have several advantages over traditional polling for election forecasting:
1) They aggregate information from diverse sources—traders may be incorporating polling data, insider knowledge, historical patterns, and other signals.
2) Prices update continuously in response to news, debates, and shifting sentiment.
3) Traders have financial incentives to be accurate, not just to express preferences.
4) Markets naturally weight opinions by confidence—those who are more certain will trade more. This "wisdom of crowds" approach has historically been competitive with or superior to expert forecasts.