98th Academy Awards

This page tracks real-time prediction market odds for the 98th Academy Awards (Oscars 2026) from Kalshi and Polymarket. We aggregate data from both platforms to give you a unified view of where the market stands on Best Picture, Best Director, all four acting categories, and technical awards. Each category card shows you the current frontrunner, their probability, and the runner-up. Click into any category to see the full list of nominees, historical price movements, and side-by-side odds from both platforms.

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles. Nominations will be announced on January 22, 2026. Voting by Academy members typically closes about a week before the ceremony. From a prediction market perspective, the most interesting periods are right after major film festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride), during critics' awards season in December and January, and the week leading up to nominations when dark horses can emerge.

The Best Picture favorite changes throughout awards season based on festival buzz, critics' picks, and guild awards. Check the Best Picture card at the top of this page for the current frontrunner. Key indicators to watch include the Producers Guild Award (often a strong predictor), Directors Guild Award, and momentum from wins at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, and BAFTAs. Films that perform well across multiple guild awards typically become Best Picture favorites, while late-breaking contenders can shift the odds dramatically in the final weeks.

Oscar prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on which films or individuals will win specific Academy Awards. Each contract is worth $1 if your pick wins and $0 if they lose. So if you see a film trading at $0.35 for Best Picture, the market implies a 35% chance of winning. If you think the true probability is higher, you can buy at 35 cents and profit if it wins. The beauty of prediction markets is that prices reflect the collective wisdom of thousands of traders, often making them more accurate than individual critics or pundits. We track both Kalshi (US-regulated) and Polymarket (crypto-based) to show you where the smart money is flowing.

We track all major Oscar categories including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature, Best International Feature, Best Documentary, and key technical categories like Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, and Visual Effects. Each category has its own dedicated page with historical odds data and breakdowns by platform.