Predict the total number of Fed rate cuts this year. Compare Kalshi and Polymarket odds for 0-10+ cuts with live orderbooks and whale activity.
Exactly 2 cuts
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Exactly 2 cuts • YES side
Live odds across venues for Number of Fed Rate Cuts in 2026. "Average" is the simple cross-venue mean.
| Outcome | KALSHI | POLYMARKET | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% |
| Exactly 1 cut | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 24.0% | 26.0% | 25.0% |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 1.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 22.0% | 28.0% | 25.0% |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 16.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
Buy @ lower venue and sell @ higher venue for the same outcome. "Actionable" shows if Kalshi ↔ Polymarket arb is profitable after fees.
| Outcome | Pair | Leg A | Leg B | Spread | After Fees | Actionable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 cuts | KALSHIPOLYMARKET | YES22.0%KALSHI | NO74.0%POLYMARKET | 4.0¢ | +2.0¢ | Yes |
| Exactly 6 cuts | KALSHIPOLYMARKET | YES3.7%POLYMARKET | NO94.0%KALSHI | 2.3¢ | +1.3¢ | Yes |
| Exactly 0 cuts | KALSHIPOLYMARKET | YES6.3%POLYMARKET | NO92.0%KALSHI | 1.7¢ | +0.7¢ | Yes |
| Exactly 2 cuts | KALSHIPOLYMARKET | YES24.0%KALSHI | NO75.0%POLYMARKET | 1.0¢ | -1.0¢ | — |
| Exactly 7 cuts | KALSHIPOLYMARKET | YES1.6%POLYMARKET | NO98.0%KALSHI | 0.4¢ | -0.6¢ | — |
| Exactly 12 cuts | KALSHIPOLYMARKET | YES1.0%KALSHI | NO98.1%POLYMARKET | 0.9¢ | -0.1¢ | — |
Key economic metrics that influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations.
| Indicator | Value | Change | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP Nowcast Atlanta Fed GDPNow | +4.2% | — | Q1 2026 | Atlanta Fed |
Unemployment Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | ↑ 0.10 | Sep 2025 | FRED |
CPI Consumer Price Index | 324.4 | ↑ 1.00 | Sep 2025 | FRED |
Core CPI CPI ex. Food & Energy | 330.5 | ↑ 0.75 | Sep 2025 | FRED |
PCE Personal Consumption | 127.6 | ↑ 0.34 | Sep 2025 | FRED |
Core PCE PCE ex. Food & Energy | 127.0 | ↑ 0.25 | Sep 2025 | FRED |
Fed Funds Rate Effective FFR | 3.88% | ↓ 0.21 | Nov 2025 | FRED |
10Y Treasury 10-Year Yield | 4.17% | ↑ 0.01 | Dec 2025 | FRED |
2Y Treasury 2-Year Yield | 3.44% | ↓ 0.04 | Dec 2025 | FRED |
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y Spread | +0.73pp | — | Dec 2025 | Calculated |
Recent large trades from sophisticated traders on this event.
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Key insights and explanations for market participants
Prediction markets let you see exactly what traders expect. On Kalshi and Polymarket, you can bet on the total number of Fed rate cuts for the year, with outcomes ranging from 0 cuts to 10+. The odds update in real time as economic data comes in. Right now the market is pricing in a range, with the highest probability usually sitting around 1-3 cuts depending on inflation and jobs numbers.
Unlike betting on a single FOMC meeting (which you can do on our Fed Rate Monitor), a rate cut count market asks: how many total 25bps cuts will happen this calendar year? If the Fed cuts in March and again in June, that counts as 2. You are betting on the cumulative total, not any individual decision.
Both platforms offer markets on the number of Fed rate cuts, but the odds often differ. Kalshi tends to reflect US retail and some institutional flow. Polymarket skews more global and crypto-native. When their odds diverge significantly on the same outcome, it can signal an arbitrage opportunity or just different crowd sentiment. We show both side by side so you can compare.
Three big ones:
Watch the price history on this page to see how the total Fed rate cuts prediction has changed after major releases.
Kalshi and Polymarket both have active markets on Fed rate cut count. Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange (USD deposits, standard KYC). Polymarket is crypto-based and offshore (USDC deposits, no US access). Oddpool aggregates both so you can compare odds, spot arbs, and track whale trades without switching between platforms.