Super Bowl Prediction Markets

Super Bowl Prediction Markets Explained

The Super Bowl is the single highest-volume sporting event on prediction markets. Both Kalshi and Polymarket list extensive NFL championship contracts — outright winner, conference champions, and an increasingly deep menu of prop bets. Contracts are available from the preseason all the way through Super Bowl Sunday, with liquidity peaking during the playoffs.

Unlike sportsbook moneylines, prediction market Super Bowl contracts trade between $0 and $1 on an open orderbook. The price is the probability. If the Chiefs trade at $0.18, the market collectively believes there's an 18% chance they win it all. You can buy or sell at any time — no waiting for kickoff, no locked-in bet.

Contract Types for the NFL Championship

• Super Bowl winner — Every contending team gets its own contract. The Super Bowl dashboard tracks all of them with cross-venue price comparison.
• Conference champions — AFC and NFC champion contracts resolve earlier, letting you cash out before the big game.
• Player props — Super Bowl MVP, passing yards over/under, first touchdown scorer. These markets appear on Kalshi in the weeks leading up to the game.
• Game props — Total points, margin of victory, coin toss outcome, and even halftime show events. Polymarket tends to list more creative props than Kalshi.
• Weekly NFL markets — During the regular season, individual game outcome contracts let you trade each matchup. Check the NFL Weekly dashboard for current game odds.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket on NFL

Football is where Kalshi shines relative to Polymarket. As a US-regulated exchange, Kalshi attracts serious NFL bettors who bring deep knowledge of rosters, coaching schemes, and injury reports. Polymarket's global audience may not follow the NFL as closely, which can lead to pricing inefficiencies — especially on mid-season futures and conference championship odds.

Price gaps between the two platforms tend to be widest during the regular season (when attention is lower) and narrowest during the Super Bowl itself (when everyone is watching). Oddpool's arbitrage scanner tracks these gaps continuously.

Following the Smart Money

Super Bowl markets attract whale bettors — individuals placing $5,000, $10,000, or more on a single outcome. The Whale Tracker flags these large trades in real time. During the playoffs, whale activity tends to spike after injury announcements, coaching decisions, and weather forecasts — the kind of information edges that sophisticated bettors trade on before the broader market adjusts.